The ATP Finals draw has been made, with Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal learning their opponents for the group stages.
Federer has enjoyed great success at the season-ending event down the years and he’s chasing an impressive seventh title, although a win at the O2 would be his first since 2011.
For Nadal, it’s a different story.
The Spaniard is yet to taste glory at these championships but after returning to world No. 1 in 2017, he will fancy his chances.
Both are heavily fancied to win the event, with Federer the outright favourite, and in a field of new stars competing for the first time in London, it seems unlikely anyone can stop them.
ATP Finals odds (Betfair)
8/13 – Federer
16/5 – Nadal
7/1 – Zverev
10/1 – Dimitrov
11/1 – Cilic
22/1 – Sock
22/1 – Thiem
25/1 – Goffin
16/5 – Nadal
7/1 – Zverev
10/1 – Dimitrov
11/1 – Cilic
22/1 – Sock
22/1 – Thiem
25/1 – Goffin
ATP Finals groups
Pete Sampras Group: Nadal, Thiem, Dimitrov, Goffin
Boris Becker Group: Federer, Zverev, Cilic, Sock
But could someone do the unthinkable and end the Fedal-dominated 2017 by pipping them to the fifth biggest title on the circuit?
Here we take a look at all the contenders and rate their chances…
PETE SAMPRAS GROUP
Rafael Nadal
Yet to win the end-of-year crown in London, Nadal will be hoping to break his duck at one of the few titles he’s been unable to capture.
He’s come close on a couple of occasions, losing to Federer in the final in 2010 and to Novak Djokovic at the last hurdle in 2013 but after a fine renaissance year, he will hope to match that again.
Nadal record v rest of group
Nadal 5-2 Thiem
Nadal 10-1 Dimitrov
Nadal 2-0 Goffin
A knee injury, which troubled him in Shanghai and forced him out of Basel, and ultimately Paris-Bercy, could restrict his chances once more.
Even if fully fit, there are question marks as to whether he’s the man to stop Federer indoors, although he should expect to get out of his group comfortably given his record against the other participants.
No. of titles in 2017: 6 (Monte-Carlo, Barcelona, Madrid, Roland Garros, US Open, Beijing)
Best run in London: Final (2010, 2013)
Chance of winning (out of 5): 4
Prediction: Final (if knee holds up)
Grigor Dimitrov
At a career-high world No. 6 after a fine year, Dimitrov is making his debut in London.
It’s perhaps later than expected for a man once nicknamed ‘Baby Fed’ but he’s got himself back on the right track in 2017 after a disappointing few years.
Dimitrov record v rest of group
Dimitrov 1-10 Nadal
Dimitrov 3-1 Goffin
Dimitrov 1-2 Thiem
A first Masters 1000 crown in Cincinnati will have provided a big boost to his confidence and his form since a disappointing defeat at the US Open has been good – losing to Nadal in both Beijing and Shanghai, to Juan Martin del Potro in the final of Stockholm and narrowly to John Isner in the Paris Masters.
Unless Nadal pulls out with injury, he may struggle to top the group, but he has a pretty decent chance of reaching the semi-finals.
No. of titles in 2017: 3 (Brisbane, Sofia, Cincinnati)
Best run in London: First appearance
Chance of winning (out of 5): 2
Prediction: Semi-finals
Dominic Thiem
Also up to a career-high ranking, Thiem is currently the fourth best player in the world and the second-highest ranked player in the Pete Sampras Group.
He won one of his three matches at the O2 last time around, beating Gael Monfils amid defeats to Djokovic and Milos Raonic, and he is the second-most experienced player in his group.
Thiem record v rest of ATP Finals group
Thiem 2-5 Nadal
Thiem 2-1 Dimitrov
Thiem 3-6 Goffin
However, the Austrian has looked jaded in recent weeks and has won just two Tour matches since his last-16 defeat to Del Potro at the US Open.
He’ll be competitive but this isn’t his favoured surface and he might struggle to progress.
No. of titles in 2017: 1 (Rio)
Best run in London: Round Robin (2016)
Chance of winning (out of 5): 1
Prediction: Group stage exit
David Goffin
A late surge from the Belgian saw him secure his first outright spot at the O2, although he did compete in a one-sided hammering courtesy of Djokovic in 2016 as an alternate.
Back-to-back titles in Shenzhen and Tokyo through him back into contention to reach London after an injury-hit summer following a freak injury at Roland Garros.
Goffin record v rest of group
Goffin 0-2 Nadal
Goffin 1-3 Dimitrov
Goffin 6-3 Thiem
The Belgian is a grinder and won’t give too many freebies away but, like Thiem, he appeared a bit fatigued in Paris-Bercy.
Stranger things have happened and he’s certainly competitive, but expect Goffin to be heading home after the Round Robin stage.
No. of titles in 2017: 2 (Tokyo, Shenzhen)
Best run in London: Alternate (2016)
Chance of winning (out of 5): 1
Prediction: Group stage exit
BORIS BECKER GROUP
Roger Federer
The overwhelming favourite for the tournament and it’s easy to see why.
Federer loves an indoor hard court and his form in 2017 has been nothing but outstanding.
Federer record v rest of his group
Federer 2-2 Zverev
Federer 7-1 Cilic
Federer 3-0 Sock
He has perhaps been handed a slightly tougher group than Nadal, but it really is a stretch to see anyone stopping him at the O2 at this moment in time.
Expect him to win his group and more than likely win an eighth title in 2017.
No. of titles in 2017: 7 (Australian Open, Indian Wells, Miami, Halle, Wimbledon, Shanghai, Basel)
Best run in London: Winner (2003, 2004, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011)
Chance of winning (out of 5): 5
Prediction: Winner
Alexander Zverev
The golden boy of tennis, Zverev will be hoping to make a big statement at the O2 in 2017.
It’s been a fine year for the world No. 3, lifting two Masters 1000 titles and generally being very consistent on all surfaces.
Zverev 2-2 Federer
Zverev 3-1 Cilic
Zverev 1-1 Sock
He has a decent record against Federer and beat him in the final of Montreal, while also beating Djokovic in Rome.
Will be tough for him to top the group, but a semi-final against Nadal would be an intriguing prospect should he find his way past Marin Cilic.
No. of titles in 2017: 5 (Montpellier, Munich, Rome, Washington, Montreal)
Best run in London: First appearance
Chance of winning (out of 5): 3
Prediction: Semi-finalist
Marin Cilic
One of three Grand Slam winners competing in London and the 2017 Wimbledon runner-up, Cilic has enjoyed another impressive season.
After a disappointing start to the year, he found the best form of his career in the grass-court season before being stopped by Federer in the final.
Cilic record v rest of group
Cilic 0-2 Sock
Cilic 1-3 Zverev
Cilic 1-7 Federer
He enters the season-ending event in decent form, having reached the semi-finals in three of his last four tournaments, but he has won just one of his six matches in London.
Having said that, four of those defeats were against Djokovic, Andy Murray and Stan Wawrinka – with Tomas Berdych the only other man to beat him.
Has a good shot of reaching the semi-finals, but may be pipped by Zverev.
No. of titles in 2017: 1 (Istanbul)
Best run in London: Round Robin (2014, 2016)
Chance of winning (out of 5): 3
Prediction: Group stage exit
Jack Sock
The most surprising name in the draw, the American clinched his place out of nowhere with a remarkable first Masters 1000 title.
It seemed as if his 2017 was set to tail off before an unlikely 13-place rankings jump to give him a shot at the ATP Finals.
Sock v rest of the group
Sock 0-3 Federer
Sock 1-1 Zverev
Sock 2-0 Cilic
The 25-year-old is capable of the sublime and has decent records against Cilic and Zverev, but he can also go missing at events.
Whether he will be overwhelmed by the occasion remains to be seen, but it’s hard to see him progressing from a tough group.
No. of titles in 2017: 3 (Auckland, Delray Beach, Paris-Bercy)
Best run in London: First appearance
Chance of winning (out of 5): 1
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